International arbitration in 2026: 5 themes for turbulent times

This time last year our international arbitration team reflected on 2024 and surveyed the trends driving international disputes in the next year. Geopolitical tensions, energy market volatility, supply chain disruption, the energy transition and the role of emerging technologies all featured.  

2025 saw this analysis hold true. The trends of 2024 were amplified amid tariffs and sanctions, continued military conflict, further technological development around artificial intelligence, and competition for natural resources. 

In this article, we look back on 5 trends which were a focus for us in 2025. We also again anticipate the themes likely to drive disputes in 2026.  

1. Twists and turns in the energy transition

Last year we predicted a continued rise in commercial and public international law disputes involving renewable energy projects. This came true and our team advised clients on a wide range of renewables related disputes.

Respondents to Ashurst's Powering Change survey, released in March 2025, identified that they also expect this trend to continue in the future. Our survey explored the view of approximately 2,000 senior executives and managers involved in energy decision-making. Nearly 9 in 10 respondents believed that their organisation's approach to the energy transition was likely to lead to disputes. Issues arising from new or untested technology, infrastructure limitations, environmental issues and regulatory delays were seen as the most likely sources of conflict.

We also launched the first articles in our "Crosswinds" series. This series of thought leadership pieces explores common types of disputes on wind power projects in the current economic climate. In the initial piece, our experts explained why capacity reservation and early works agreements in the wind industry are particularly susceptible to disputes, and we offered 5 ways in which industry participants could avoid (or, at least, manage) the risks. The second piece of this series looked at construction related disputes in the sector.

Our team also explored approaches to "repower" existing generation technology, and how the complexity and additional interfaces involved can lead to claims.

Finally, renewables sector disputes also were a theme at London International Disputes Week. We joined discussions on the irony of climate change impacting the performance of renewables projects designed to mitigate its effects, as variable weather conditions and rising sea levels impacted project development and performance. We also shared broader insights on the resolution of renewables disputes, the importance of expert evidence and the role of adjudication and expert determination in resolving discrete claims.

What does it mean for business?

The energy transition is unstoppable. But 2025 saw some retrenchment in efforts to reduce emissions. We expect to see this theme play out in 2026, with disputes arising from continued project development and disagreements between companies over renewables investments. Divergent views over the pace of decarbonisation and contentious policy decisions by governments are also prone to lead to increased sovereign disputes and corporates are well advised to explore measures to mitigate political risks before specific disputes crystalize.

2. Geopolitics turns up the volume

Geopolitics was once a niche subject. A search of Google Trends' data since 2004 reveals interest in the term was broadly flat from 2004 to spring 2022. Russia's invasion of Ukraine changed that and interest spiked in summer 2025, amid conflict in the Middle East and other tensions.

We saw geopolitics through a number of lenses in 2025.

Competition for natural resources was a major theme, with critical minerals a focus. We advised investors on steps they could take to mitigate their exposure to political risk with a particular focus on the energy and mining sector as well as large-scale infrastructure products. Importantly, regulatory and political changes have put this topic on the radar of foreign investors across the globe, who are no longer focussed on protecting investments in the traditional high-risk jurisdictions, but also jurisdictions that were traditionally perceived as safe.

In line with this trend and the critical role of Africa, we further strengthened our Africa capabilities with the appointment of Ouns Lemseffer as Head of Morocco and a launch of our office in Casablanca. Our arbitration team works closely with our new colleagues to assist clients prevent disputes where possible, and ensure that effective remedies are available where necessary.

The spring saw a flurry of advice on international tariffs, and their effect on contractual relationships. (The word "tariffs" also enjoyed a high rating in the Google Trends data in 2025…). We looked beyond the usual concepts of force majeure, material adverse change, and change in law mechanisms, to consider how parties could adopt flexibility mechanisms to protect against future changes.

Finally, the hard edge of geopolitics is armed conflict. Our Defence sector team considered some of the dynamics shaping Europe's quest to re-arm, and the tensions that could lead to disputes. We advised on claims arising from joint ventures struggling to adapt to the evolution of priorities in the military sector, and the effect of tax and cost increases on contracts for the construction of military hardware.

What does it mean for business?

International arbitration came of age in a post-war international order characterised by global cooperation and accepted rules. The end – or at least weakening – of that order will be a significant driver of disputes. 2026 has already seen unprecedented events in international relations. We predict further measures by states to assume greater control over natural resources and critical infrastructure. Claims from companies adversely affected will follow, both against the states imposing those measures and the intended recipients of such resources and infrastructure. Continued investment in the defence sector will also generate sensitive disputes, as contracts strain to accommodate the evolving requirements of modern warfare. Arbitration will play a key role in this context, not least of all because of its unique ability to deal with highly sensitive matters confidentially and expeditiously.

3. The role of international law

International plays a critical role in the developments highlighted above and provides crucial tools for investors to protect their investments against political risks, irrespective of the industry sector. This notwithstanding, in parallel to the geopolitical events discussed above, 2025 saw several states, including the UK, complete their withdrawal from the Energy Charter Treaty, a post Cold War multilateral investment treaty offering protections for energy sector investments. The UK's stated reason for withdrawing from the treaty was the failure of efforts to align its protections with net zero. This was despite agreement on a modernised treaty, provisionally applying from 3 September 2025.

Our experts reminded clients that existing investments made in withdrawing states by qualifying foreign investors, and by investors from these states in other contracting party states, would likely continue to enjoy protection under the treaty's "sunset provision" (until April 2045, in the UK's case). In September 2025, the EU affirmed the common understanding of EU states that the sunset provision has no effect as between EU investors and EU Member States. Irrespective of whether this understanding withstands legal scrutiny, it is of utmost importance that investors take stock of available treaties and proactively consider risk mitigation as new investments or substantially altered investments do not enjoy the same protections.

2025 was also an important year as regards the recognition and enforcement of arbitral awards against states and state entities. We summarised developments here and here, which highlight some of the benefits of arbitration and the importance of consulting expert international counsel to make use of these benefits.

Despite a number of hard political blows against ESG concerns, related international law kept developing rapidly in 2025. One of the key milestones in this regard was on 23 July 2025 when the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the principal judicial organ of the United Nations, produced a landmark opinion on the obligations of states in relation to climate change. In this opinion, the ICJ endorsed the view that nations are subject to extensive duties in relation to climate change under a variety of sources of law, including customary international law.

The ICJ concluded that states which fail to take appropriate action to protect the climate system from greenhouse gas emissions may commit an internationally wrongful act. This is likely to be relied on by states defending investment treaty claims arising from measures taken against high emitting projects owned by foreign investors. One ICJ judge, Judge Cleveland, went further in her supplementary declaration, stating that interpretation of investment treaties must be informed by states' obligations in respect of climate change under international law. We considered the implications of this, and other aspects of the opinion, in several fora including a dedicated client webinar.

What does it mean for business?

The ICJ advisory opinion is prone to give rise to claims against large corporations by NGOs and other stakeholders, both in litigation before domestic courts and arbitration. We also expect international climate law to enter the investment arbitration arena more prominently in 2026. For example, in turbulent times investors in renewable technologies may question whether states have not been sufficiently supportive of the energy transition. In turn, states are likely to invoke their broader public international law obligations to justify measures that have adverse effect on foreign investors. Tribunals tasked with deciding such disputes will have to analyse these emerging legal issues carefully and conduct thorough fact finding. Investors, in particular those who cannot rely on Energy Charter Treaty protection (anymore) should consider available options early on, such as investment treaty structuring, seeking specific undertakings from host states or political risk insurance at an acceptable price.

4. Arbitration beyond the usual suspects

A number of sectors have historically dominated international arbitration. Construction and engineering, energy, mining, international trade, and shipping are well represented in the statistics of arbitral institutions.

But arbitration is increasingly generating headlines in other industries as well. Sport is now big business, with billions being pumped into teams and tournaments, including for e-sports. Sport also featured prominently in the agenda at the inaugural London Arbitration Week in late 2025. Fans of English football await the outcome of the Premier League's arbitration against Manchester City regarding alleged breach of the league's Profitability & Sustainability Rules.

In the RFC Seraing case, the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) handed down a significant ruling in August 2025.

Our experts acted in this case, which relates to penalties imposed by the Fédération internationale de football association (FIFA) on a Belgian football club (Seraing) for breach of its rules. Seraing challenged the penalties before the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) in Lausanne, Switzerland, arguing, amongst other things, that the penalties breached its rights under EU law. The arbitral tribunal disagreed, but the matter found its way to the Belgian Supreme Court which initiated a preliminary ruling procedure, asking the CJEU whether the award could be treated as binding within the EU in circumstances where the consistency of the award with EU public policy had not been subject to effective review by the courts of an EU Member State. The CJEU concluded that it could not. The case is the latest example of the evolving relationship between arbitration and European Union law.

Away from sport, we commented on how the world's hunger for "compute", both for general computing capacity and artificial intelligence purposes, was fuelling investment in data centre infrastructure. We looked at how the particular demands of the data centre boom might encourage disputes, and how they could be mitigated. At Dubai Arbitration Week we hosted an event on navigating disputes in data centre projects, with a focus on the Middle East.

We also turned our eyes skyward. We considered how the commercial space race raised novel legal questions, and how arbitration might be deployed to resolve issues between those affected.

What does it mean for business?

2026 will provide further evidence of arbitration's growth in areas historically served less by commercial arbitration lawyers. The vast investment in infrastructure to support computing, and in particular artificial intelligence, attracted scrutiny in 2025. If expectations for AI's commercial potential are not met, disputes will arise as investments sour and parties look to escape contractual commitments.

5. Arbitration evolves: how far will it go?

Amid change and uncertainty arbitration has not stood still.

One of the principal competitors for international arbitration work globally is Singapore. The city state has effectively marketed its Singapore International Arbitration Centre (SIAC) as the "go to" centre for arbitration in Asia, and beyond.

On 1 January 2025, SIAC released the 7th edition of its arbitration rules. These included a revamped scheme for fast-track arbitrations, with a new Streamlined Procedure and changes to the Expedited Procedure, enhanced emergency arbitration provisions and provisions addressing third party funding agreements. We explained the effect of these innovative provisions and advised clients on how the changes might impact them. Our webinar with Vivekananda Neelakantan (Registrar) and Andres Larrea Savinovich (Deputy Counsel) of SIAC dug into the background to, and operation of, the new rules in more detail.

On 1 August 2025 amendments to England's Arbitration Act 1996 took effect. These are intended to keep English arbitration "best in class", as competition for arbitration business heats up. The amendments contain a number of technical changes, which many users may be oblivious to. But they also include significant updates, including an explicit power for tribunals to issue summary arbitral awards where a claim (or defence) has no real prospect of success.

China amended its arbitration law too, with the changes to take effect on 1 March 2026. We characterised the changes as "progress with conservatism". We noted that although efforts had been made to bring Chinese law into line with contemporary international norms, the opportunity to adopt other changes proposed in 2021 was not taken. The amended law retains the mandatory requirement to designate an arbitration institution, does not adopt the competence-competence doctrine (enabling a tribunal to determine its own jurisdiction), and does not include provisions to empower arbitral tribunals to grant interim measures.

The arbitrations we conducted in 2025 were decided by humans but will that always be the case? In September 2025, the American Arbitration Association (and its international arm, the International Centre for Dispute Resolution) launched its AI arbitrator for documents-only construction cases. The institution promised AI support for additional industries, dispute types and higher value claims in 2026.

The AAA-ICDR's product has been trained on awards produced by (human) arbitrators in previous construction cases, and calibrated with human input. A human-in-the-loop mechanism ensures the AI-produced decisions are kept under review.

It was only a matter of time before an arbitral institution offered an AI arbitrator. Others will follow.

How arbitration will develop also featured prominently at the 2025 Australian Arbitration Week which was held in Sydney in October 2025. Eight of our global arbitration partners attended Sydney and participated at various events. Several were hosted at Ashurst including panels on arbitration of disputes in the renewables sector, the rise of nationalism, the future of diversity and on institutional co-operation for younger practitioners. The primary conference theme, on which Sylvia Tee spoke, was "future-proofing arbitration". Georgia Quick, Immediate Past President of the Australian Centre for International Commercial Arbitration (ACICA) was also honoured by ACICA with a life time Fellow award, presented by the Governor General of New South Wales at the reception kicking off the conference.

What does it mean for business?

2026 will see further revisions to arbitration rules, as institutions seek to position themselves in a fast changing world. Parties and counsel will look to deploy arbitral innovations to gain an edge in proceedings. The role of AI – both as a tool for counsel and a method of dispute resolution – will remain a hot topic in international arbitration.  

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