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UK Public M&A Review 2024

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    Welcome to our review of the UK public M&A market for 2024.

    A link to download the full review can be found at the bottom of the page.

    Overview

    A year of political change

    2024 was a year of political upheaval across the globe, with around half of the world’s population heading to the polls. Where elections were held in developed western countries, the sitting parties consistently lost share of votes. In both the UK and the US, the incumbent parties were defeated. In the US, Donald Trump secured his return to the White House, defeating Kamala Harris, and in the UK, Keir Starmer’s Labour party stormed into power with a landslide majority, winning 412 seats to the Conservatives’ 121. Global tensions remained high, with conflicts in Ukraine and across the Middle East dominating headlines.

    Despite the political disruption, inflation continued to subside in the UK, leading to an expectation of further interest rate cuts in 2025. With the uncertainty of the UK election and budget behind us, Britain could see a more positive economic outlook going into 2025, especially when compared with other developed European economies. Saying that, there are a number of factors which could influence and complicate this. In particular, Labour’s ongoing fiscal policies in the UK and the impact of the Trump administration’s approach to tariffs and deregulation in the US.

    The impact on the UK public M&A market in 2024 and predictions for 2025

    Political disruption had a clear impact on M&A during the year, with sporadic activity throughout. Late Spring, for example, saw significant deal flow, whilst there were also periods of inactivity.

    Deal values were markedly higher than the prior year, with more £1bn+ firm offers announced in Q1 2024 than in the whole of 2023 and average deal values significantly higher. There was also increased competition for attractive assets, with rival bids and significant premia being offered even on high value assets.

    The positive uptick in deal activity at the end of the year and, in particular, the agreement of terms for some high-profile transactions, has positioned the markets for a busy start to 2025. We expect target-led sale processes to continue, as target boards and shareholders struggle with persistently subdued valuations, with target companies taking advantage of the greater flexibility afforded to private sale processes. We also expect shareholder engagement to continue to influence and impact board strategy, encouraging more targets to come to market.

    Amidst a more certain political backdrop, lowering interest rates, the return of large-scale financing, and private equity funds still sitting on significant levels of “dry powder”, the UK market looks attractive. The FTSE 100’s bias towards oil, banking and utility stocks could also serve as an interesting counterweight to more “frothy” global tech valuations.

    Mandates

    Ashurst's role on announced deals in Q4 2024

    • Tritax EuroBox on its recommended offer by Brookfield Asset Management.
    • Equals Group on its strategic review and recommended offer by a consortium of funds.
    • Renewi on the final possible offer from Macquarie.
    • Citigroup & Goldman Sachs on the offer for Direct Line by Aviva.
    • boohoo on its successful activism defence.
    • PJT Partners on the offer for Learning Technologies by General Atlantic.
    • HSBC on the offer for Loungers by Fortress Investment Group.
    • UBS on the offer for Aquis Exchange by Swiss Exchange group SIX.

    Public M&A Review

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    The information provided is not intended to be a comprehensive review of all developments in the law and practice, or to cover all aspects of those referred to.
    Readers should take legal advice before applying it to specific issues or transactions.