While these are undoubtably "strange and unprecedented times" for all, public transport is likely to be one of the most transformed sectors in the post-Covid world. With the fundamental premise of mass-transportation suddenly considered unsafe, cities are prioritising walking and cycling ("active transport") as alternative ways of getting around. But will this emergency shift constitute a longer lasting transport revolution?
Current Limitations of Public Transport
Due to events which seemed inconceivable a few months ago, the use of public transportation has declined significantly. Most trains in the UK are currently running at approximately 10 per cent of their normal passenger capacity.1 This reduction is largely the result of governmental advice to only use public transport for "essential travel" and, for those required to travel, concerns regarding the safety of public transport during the Covid-19 pandemic.
In response to the Government's partial lifting of lockdown in May 2020, mainline train operators have increased the number of services running. To allow for social distancing, they are restricting the flow of passengers by asking people to book in advance. Operators are able to afford to introduce such measures as a result of the Emergency Measures Agreement signed in March 2020 with the Department for Transport, which removed cost and revenue risk from rail franchisees. Once this ends, however, the future for rail franchises and mainline operators is unclear.
The outlook is even starker for mass-transit systems such as inner-city buses, the London Underground and Manchester Metrolink which, pre Covid-19, were providing frequent services at high capacity. Indeed, the introduction of passenger flow restrictions and social distancing measures largely defeats their purpose and without continued financial assistance (as was recently granted to Transport for London),2 or a change in attitude towards mass-transportation, such systems will be financially unviable.
As the UK lockdown eases and more members of the public are asked to return to work, it remains fundamentally unclear how they will commute and what role mass-transit systems will play.
Are cars the answer?
Moving forward, will cars fill the void left by public transport?
City mayors have already expressed concerns over the impact of increased car journeys. Council figures warned of gridlock in Manchester,3 while the Congestion Charge has been reinstated in London, with a price increase and extended hours of operation, to prevent roads from becoming unusably blocked.4
City planners are also considering the impact of increased car usage on air pollution and the worsening of climate change. Although in some UK cities, implementation of "clean air zones" have been delayed until at least January 2021,5 our expectation is that the goal of reducing emissions will remain firmly on the national political agenda in the future.6 Research has also suggested that air pollution is linked to higher Covid-19 death rates.7 Widescale adoption of electric cars would mitigate air pollution concerns, but such a fundamental shift is unlikely to happen quickly and would not address concerns over the potential for gridlock across the UK's cities.
Consequently, while cars may appear to provide the safest mode of transport for the individual in a post-Covid world, their mass adoption in the urban environment is unlikely to be supported by the UK's urban infrastructure or the political agenda.
Emergency implementation of "Active Transport"
Across the UK, the Government and city mayors alike are promoting the use of "active transport" as a response to Covid-19.
Sadiq Khan has announced plans to pedestrianise large sections of London as lockdown eases,8 while Council leaders in Bristol and Greater Manchester plan to permanently pedestrianise parts of their city centres.9 The Scottish government have pledged £10 million to create "pop-up" walking and cycling routes,10 and the UK government have promised £2 billion to "create new era for cycling and walking".11
However, it may be naïve to assume that these announcements will inherently lead to widespread behavioural change. People still have concerns over safety; although cyclist injury and deaths across Europe are decreasing year upon year, they are doing so at a slower rate than other forms of transport.12 While lockdown persists, "pop-up" facilities (which borrow space from roads by using temporary road-marking-tape) provide all important separation for cyclists. But as lockdown eases and roads begin to repopulate, there are fears that the risk to cyclists will increase. Safety concerns would be somewhat alleviated by the construction of physically separate cycling paths, but with budget and time constraints, this might not be possible in the short term.
There are other more practical drawbacks to cycling and walking. For the everyday commute, it is likely to remain unrealistic for most people who do not live within a reasonable radius of their workplace. On top of the geographic constraints, cycling may not be practicable for the injured or elderly, nor as appealing in autumn and winter.
Ultimately, it remains to be seen whether the current political support for active transport will be enough to overcome these fundamental concerns and impracticalities, and result in its widescale adoption.
A Lasting Revolution?
Given the measures that city planners are taking across the UK to encourage active transport, our expectation is that there will be a significant increase in its adoption in the short term. Whether this leads to a long term "revolution" is likely to depend on whether the public's psyche has been permanently changed with regards to the safety of mass transportation and the alternative use of active transport. The most important factors are likely to be (a) whether a vaccine for Covid-19 is discovered; (b) how deeply entrenched the so-called "new world" becomes before such discovery; (c) the likelihood of there being future pandemics; and (d) how successful/practical the public's adoption of active transport turns out to be.
For the time being at least, the Government's clear message is to "get on your bike".
Authors: Ellen Blakeney, Trainee Solictor and William Tane, Senior Associate
1. Financial Times, "Public transport struggles to cater for the few" (21 May 2020)
2. UK Government, "Government grants Transport for London funding package" (15 May 2020)
3. The Guardian, "Calls for more space for walking and cycling in UK during lockdown" (28 April 2020)
4. Mayor of London, "Car-free zones in London as Congestion Charge and ULEZ reinstated" (15 May 2020)
5. Birmingham City Council, "Birmingham’s Clean Air Zone and the impact of COVID-19" (24 March 2020)
Leeds City Council, "Council releases information on support available to those self-employed in the city along with an update on the Clean Air Zone plans" (27 March 2020)
6. UK Government, "Creating the transport decarbonisation plan" (25 March 2020)
7. Harvard University, "A national study on long-term exposure to air pollution and COVID-19 mortality in the United States" (24 April 2020)
8. Mayor of London, "Car-free zones in London as Congestion Charge and ULEZ reinstated" (15 May 2020)
9. Bristol City Council, "Getting Bristol moving safely and quickly" (13 May 2020)
Manchester City Council, "Deansgate set for part-pedestrianisation as part of city's coronavirus recovery plan" (30 April 2020)
10. Transport Scotland, "£10 million to support pop-up active travel infrastructure" (28 April 2020)
11. UK Government, "£2 billion package to create new era for cycling and walking" (9 May 2020)
12. CIVITAS, "Smart choices for cities: Cycling in the City" (2016) p.10
