Low Carbon Pulse - Edition 4
Global developments in progress towards net-zero emissions
Welcome to Edition 4 of Low Carbon Pulse - sharing significant news in the progress towards net-zero emissions. This edition covers the period November 7 to November 22 2020.
Green back backed
On November 3, 2020 the US Presidential Election took place. At the time of print, the transition to the Joe Biden administration has begun. He will be the 46th President of the United States. It is expected the US will re-enter the Paris Agreement; re-entry can occur on 30 days' notice from the President. If this happens, the US will likely re-establish its original commitment to reduce GHG emissions of between 26% to 28% of the 2005 levels by 2025.
It is hoped we will see the return of the wider global climate leadership of the US. Could the US join the European Union (EU), the People's Republic of China (PRC), Japan and Korea – in making accelerated reduction commitments? The answer is yes. It is expected that Joe Biden will commit to the reduction in GHG emissions from the generation of electrical energy to zero emissions by 2035, and to net zero-emissions by 2050. Following the inauguration of President-elect Biden, we will continue to track the US policy settings in Low Carbon Pulse.
While the US is unlikely to achieve its original GHG emission reduction commitments, there is a good deal of progress to build upon. On November 12, 2020 the USA Energy Information Administration reported that it expected that 23 GW of wind power capacity would be added during 2020 (with a total of 29 GW of wind and solar). While there are tax credit reasons for this level of build-out during 2020 (which are to cease), it would be reasonable to assume, on re-entry of the US to the Paris Agreement, and recalibration of GHG emissions commitments, that this pace of development will continue or increase.
If the US re-enters the Paris Agreement, and, as anticipated, commits to net zero GHG emissions by 2050, the US, with the EU, the PRC, Japan and Korea (about two thirds of the global economy, and approximately 75% of markets for exported fossil fuels) will be broadly aligned, and committed to investing heavily in low or zero carbon technologies.
The Paris Agreement recognises that to respond to the effects of increased GHG in the atmosphere, it is necessary to commit to hold: "the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels [Stabilisation Goal] and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels [Stretch Goal]…".
See: Green energy is about green backs
A record year for renewable electrical energy
On November 9, 2020 the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that 2020 will be a record year for the development of renewable energy. The calendar year will see 200 GW installed; an increase of 4 GW on 2019. With 144 GW between them - the PRC (89 GW), the US (29 GW) and the EU (26 GW) are responsible for two-thirds of that capacity. Stating the obvious: this has been achieved through COVID-19 period.
On the IEA's base case, it anticipates that installed capacity will increase at a steady, but flat, rate during 2021 through the end of 2025. On an accelerated case, the IEA predicts a marked increase to over 260 GW of installed capacity in 2021, and a steady rate of growth to the end of 2024, with a further marked increase to approximately 310 GW to be installed in the year to the end of 2025. Perhaps the reality will be somewhere in between.
By 2025, the IEA is anticipating that solar and wind renewable power will have the greatest level of installed capacity of any electrical energy generating source. We have noted before (Edition 3, Low Carbon Pulse) - installed renewable energy capacity does not equal used renewable energy. If the wind isn't blowing or the sun isn't shining (and overnight)– there might be nothing to dispatch.
See: Renewables 2020
Green Hydrogen is a top emerging technology
The World Economic Forum (WEF) identifies green hydrogen as one of the top technologies to emerge during 2020, being a technology with the greatest potential to transform industry and society. While green hydrogen is not new, its use is increasing, and it is expected to be developed at an increasing rate, hence it is regarded as a top emerging technology.
While the WEF does not develop or implement policy settings it does influence them. The report describes, in short hand, green hydrogen as "zero-carbon energy to supplement wind and solar". In long hand, green hydrogen is an energy carrier that will allow decarbonisation of energy production and use generally, including industries that are difficult to decarbonise.
The WEF's report identifies other technologies: Sun-Powered Chemistry (conversion of CO2 (a GHG) into common materials), Electric Aviation (Enabling air travel to decarbonise), and Lower Carbon Cement (Construction material that combats climate change). Four of the Top 10 emerging technologies relate to abatement of GHG.
The WEF is an independent international organisation for public and private cooperation. The WEF promotes engagement among the foremost leaders across society to shape industry and global and regional agendas. Green Hydrogen is the term used to describe hydrogen that is production from the splitting of H2O using electrolysers powered by electrical energy from renewable energy sources. Neither the production, nor the use, of green hydrogen results in GHG emissions, other than water vapour.
See: Top 10 emerging technologies of 2020
Hydrogen re-fuelling infrastructure
The Hydrogen Council estimates that USD 30 billion will need to be invested globally to develop hydrogen re-fuelling infrastructure (HRI) as the hydrogen industry develops to supply vehicles. This may be regarded as a conservative estimate.
HRI is an area in which government and business can work together. It is clear that a good deal of thought is being applied to efficient and optimal development of HRI. The approach to HRI for heavy good vehicles / trucking industry in Germany was also outlined in Edition 2 of Low Carbon Pulse.
In Paris, over 500 fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) provide taxi services, using H2 supplied by Air Liquide via 4 hydrogen re-fuelling stations. On November 11, 2020, the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E), announced a proposal to develop 10 hydrogen storage facilities at locations around Paris. The proposed €1 billion project would provide total storage for up to 11 GHh of hydrogen. As a result of the project, Parisian transport company, Societe du Taxi Electrique Parisian, estimates that 50,000 taxis could provide taxi services using FCEV technology.
The Paris HRI project is one of 25 energy storage projects and schemes identified by ENTSO-E across the EU. We will consider these energy storage projects and schemes in future editions of Low Carbon Pulse.
See: Plans for 50,000 hydrogen-powered taxis in Paris
Japan continued run of firsts
As we have reported in the first three Editions of Low Carbon Pulse, Japan is a first mover in the shift to hydrogen. Japan's first mover status has again been emphasised by the news that in March 2020 an import terminal at Kobe will receive its first hydrogen cargo. The import terminal is being developed by Kawasaki Heavy Industries (KHI) and Iwatani. (Amongst other things, Iwatani is positioning itself as a storage and delivery business, including in respect of HRI in Japan and the US.)
The import terminal comprises receipt and storage facilities for liquified hydrogen gas (LHG). As reported in Edition 2 of Low Carbon Pulse, KHI developed the first LHG vessel, commissioned in December 2019.
The involvement of KHI in the development of the means of transporting, and importing H2 into Japan, reflects its understanding of the need to develop a hydrogen economy in absolute terms:
"Hydrogen is indispensable for Japan to reach the zero emission goal. Renewable energy isn't enough to meet the nation's hefty energy needs" (Motohiko Nishimura, Head of the Kawasaki hydrogen development centre).
Jochen Eickholt, executive board member of Siemens Energy AG has provided a helpful perspective on the development LHG in temporal terms:
"It won't take decades for the hydrogen industry to develop, like it took LNG, but it won't happen overnight".
And of course the LHG industry does not need to develop overnight, but for Japan to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 it is projected that it will be importing 36 mtpa of LHG by 2050.
In short, there is an imperative for the development of the LHG industry, there was a different imperative for the LNG industry.
See: Japan bets big on hydrogen for zero-emission future
An EU Roadmap, "off-road capacity" development
Currently the countries of the EU, have 12 GW of installed off-shore renewable energy capacity. On November 19, 2020 the EU announced a plan to increase installed off-shore capacity five-fold to 60 GW by 2030 (60 by 30), and twenty-five fold to 300 GW by 2050 (300 by 50). (This plan is in addition to the continued build out of shore-based renewable energy projects.) This plan is intended to enable the EU to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, and it is clear recognition that the previous rate of progress in the mobilisation of renewable energy was not going to achieve the Stabilisation Goal. The price tag attached to installing this capacity is put at €790 to 800 billion (USD 940 to 945 billion) by 2050.
EU Commissioner, Frans Timmermans (leading the European Commission's work on the European Green Deal and European Climate Law to give effect to the 2050 carbon neutrality target) said:
"[The EU] aims are ambitious, but with [the EU's] vast sea basins and our global industrial leadership, the EU has all that it needs to meet the challenge".
As noted in Edition 3 of Low Carbon Pulse, connection and system integrity and stability arise as issues to be addressed on the development of any intermittent / variable supply of electrical energy. Also the augmentation and development of any grid needs to take place well- ahead of the development of off-shore capacity, as does electrical energy storage (ESS). As the EU off-shore plan develops, Low Carbon Pulse will provide updates, including in respect of the attendant need for grid augmentation and ESS development before electrification.
See: Europe seeks $940 billion boost for giant offshore wind farm and European Union plans mammoth expansion of offshore wind farms
Zero heroes
In a recent news article, a number of Zero Heroes were identified, each of which seemed a sound assessment This caused us to reflect on countries not in the article that were worthy of mention. Chile came to mind. Earlier in 2020 Chile updated its National Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement, committing to becoming a net-zero emission country by 2030. As such Chile become the first developing country (under the Paris Agreement) to commit to net-zero emissions.
A key strategy for Chile is to use surplus renewable energy to produce green hydrogen. Chile generated 44% of its electrical energy from renewable sources in 2019, which is projected to reach 70% by 2030. Chile is projecting production of up to 25 mtpa of green hydrogen by 2050. Chile views the key export markets for its green hydrogen as the North Asian markets of PRC, Japan and Korea, each of which has committed to net-zero emissions in recent times (see Editions 2 and 3 of Low Carbon Pulse).
By 2030, Chile is projecting production of up to 5% of the supply side of the global green hydrogen production market. Chile's National Green Hydrogen Strategy contemplates that by 2040 it will become a world class exporter of green hydrogen. The IEA has projected that Chile could produce up to 160 mtpa of green hydrogen, in equivalent energy terms, the same as the current LNG export industry.
As is the case with South Australia (see Edition 3 of Low Carbon Pulse), the government of Chile is front and centre in the development of its hydrogen production industry.
In each Edition of Low Carbon Pulse one country will be considered. In Edition 5 of Low Carbon Pulse, it will be Spain.
See: National Green Hydrogen Strategy. Chile, a clean energy provider for a carbon neutral planet and Climate heroes: the countries pioneering a green future
Difficult to decarbonise industries
It is well understood that H2 is a low or no carbon energy carrier, providing the means to displace fuels (and feedstocks) that give rise to GHG emissions on use, including fossil fuels used for combustion in difficult to decarbonise industries, such as the cement, chemical and steel industries. To many commentators, integrated energy companies and oil and gas companies are well-placed to participate effectively in the move to decarbonise. Chemical companies may be regarded as being well-placed, including to produce H2 for use in the chemical industries, especially those chemical companies that are already producing H2, and are producing chemicals using large scale electrolyser technology, and are trusted by the market to produce. Just as integrated energy and oil and gas companies have a way to market, so do chemical industry participants.
See: Sectors that are challenging to decarbonise
The potential for a Green Sahara and Greener plains, and the Greening of the Land Down Under
As noted in Edition 3 of Low Carbon Pulse, and as is becoming increasingly apparent, certain countries and regions have world class renewable resources, and have the potential to be major suppliers of electrical energy from renewable resources or major suppliers of H2 as an energy carrier, delivered through pipelines or ships. Interconnectors may be less expensive than pipelines, but the use of pipeline to haul energy carriers is regarded as delivering a greater proportion of the energy carrier produced to the point of use.
As noted at the end of Edition 3, there will be a point at which fixed infrastructure (whether an electrical power interconnector or a gas pipeline) does not deliver an economic outcome that is workable. In these circumstances, the assessment will turn to whether delivery by other means will result in a workable economic outcome. (In the case of the use of gas pipelines to haul H2, the pipelines will have to have higher compression than natural gas pipelines, which will make them more energy intensive to operate.)
In the same way that Australia has emerged as a possible source of renewable electrical energy (using interconnectors) and H2 (using LHG, and possibly other forms of H2) to Asia, so North Africa has emerged as a regional with world class renewable resources that may be able to provide electrical energy or H2 to Europe.
The German economic stimulus package announced on June 3, 2020 provided €9 billion to allow the "ramp up of hydrogen technologies". Of the €9 billion, €2 billion is earmarked for use on the development of hydrogen projects outside Germany. This includes North Africa and Ukraine, and, yes Australia (a feasibility study is being undertaken jointly by Australia and German governments to determine whether and if so it is possible for Australia and Germany to develop supply, in Australia, and demand, in Germany, for hydrogen). It is easy to read this funding provided by the economic stimulus package as consistent with the German National Hydrogen Strategy (NHS), which was published a week later on June 10.
In July 2020, the European Commission released "A hydrogen strategy for a climate-neutral Europe" (EU H2S). The EU H2S states:
"Hydrogen is enjoying a renewed and rapidly growing attention in Europe and around the world. Hydrogen can be used as a feedstock, a fuel or an energy carrier and storage, and has many possible applications across industry, transport, power and building sectors. Most importantly [H2] does not emit CO2, and almost no air pollution when used."
The EU H2S contemplates supply of H2 from outside the EU. While too early to make a call, it is possible to see the development of electrolysers in the Sahara to produce green hydrogen.
See: The hype and hope of Sahara Desert green hydrogen
Supply and Demand Development
In many ways, the NHS is an exemplar as a framework for policy setting and investment decision making, not just for hydrogen. Critically, the NHS recognises the need for an integrated system to make progress and to realise value, the roles of government (and as such the public sector) and private sector in developing that integrated system, and the need for a near, medium and long term perspective responsive to change.
Critically, the NHS appears to be both achievable, and affordable. It recognises the time necessary for the shift to hydrogen production and use as part of an integrated energy production and delivery system. While there is recognition that the need for a partnership between the private and public sectors is critical, this is not to the exclusion of the dynamic of any market.
Most importantly, the German National Hydrogen Strategy recognises the importance of achieving supply side and demand side certainty. The Netherlands' national hydrogen strategy makes the same point, if anything, with greater clarity and depth.
Australia
In previous Editions of Low Carbon Pulse, developments in Western Australia, the Northern Territory and South Australia have been featured. In this Edition we feature two more States, and mention a further two projects in Western Australia.
The most populous State of Australia, New South Wales (NSW), has announced plans to promote the development of 12 GW of renewable energy by 2030, and 2 GW of energy storage. Twelve years ago, the Government of NSW was intent on privatising its electricity industry, which it did through the sale of generation capacity over a four to five year period.
At the time of privatisation, the vast majority of the generating capacity in NSW was coal fired, with the coal coming from NSW's Hunter Valley. At the time of the early privatisations of generation assets, a key concern was the high price of coal, with coal from the Hunter Valley being marketed at export parity prices from the Port of Newcastle resulting in a prospective under supply of coal from 2012 / 13. How things have changed, in particular the rate of change across the energy industry. As NSW continues Australia's transition to net-zero emission, it is likely that, at least in part, the Hunter Valley will benefit being a new renewable energy zone.
As might have been anticipated, some of the companies that acquired generation capacity from NSW Government, in one instance less than eight years ago, and who are investing in system security in NSW, have raised concerns about the impact of the level and speed of change on their investment.
Tasmania, one of Australia's least populous States, is blessed with water and wind. Just as Tasmania has attracted renewable energy investment, it is now attracting interest in hydrogen projects. A green ammonia project at Bell Bay is attracting the attention of one of the Big 3 integrated energy companies in Australia, Origin Energy, and one of the world's Big 3 iron ore producers, Fortescue Metals Group (FMG).
Origin is contemplating the development of a 500 MW electrolyser (possibly bigger), with electrical energy required to power the electrolyser provided by renewable energy. The electrolyser would be the world's biggest and would produce green hydrogen which would then be used to produce green ammonia.
The interest of FMG is stated as being in the development of a 250 MW plant to produce green ammonia. Again, this scale of plant would be the world's biggest.
See: Australia’s New South Wales unveils $23bn renewable energy push, Origin looks at massive renewable hydrogen project in Tasmania and NSW to transform Hunter coal region into state’s next renewable energy zone
Infinite green from infinite blue
Western Australia continues Australia's run of world scale project proposals. Infinite Blue Energy has announced plans to develop an integrated renewable energy and green hydrogen production facility. The Arrowsmith integrated production facility will install an electrolyser and up to 160 MW of solar and wind capacity to produce 9,000 tonnes (9,000,000 kgs) of H2 annually. The Arrowsmith facility would source some electrical energy over the Western Power transmission grid, and for these purposes needs to connect to the grid.
See: Massive green hydrogen project signs network deal with Western Power
Hydrogen Renewables Australia's Murchison Green Hydrogen Project
Hydrogen Renewables Australia has announced a partnership with leading global infrastructure fund, Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP). The Murchison Green Hydrogen Project will use electrical energy sourced from solar and wind renewable energy sources to electrolyse desalinated water. The Murchison Green Hydrogen Project is interesting in a number of respects, including the expansion of the project to blend with natural gas for haulage in Western Australia's Dampier to Bunbury natural gas pipeline.
See: Western Australia's 5000 MW renewable hydrogen project moves forward
PRC – The ever increasing speed on the road to net-zero emissions
It has been reported that China's National Energy Administration (NEA) has confirmed that 18.7 GW of new solar renewable energy capacity has been installed in the calendar year 2020 to the end of September. This comes as to Asia Europe Clean Energy (Solar) Advisory (AECEA) has reported that it projects that up to 38 GW of solar capacity will be installed during the full calendar year (with some estimates earlier in the year having predicted as much as 55 GW), and that up to 48 GW will be installed during calendar year 2021.
AECEA is suggesting that PRC is likely to accelerate progress, building on the fact that in 2019 15.3% of primary energy consumption was of electrical energy from renewable sources. It is possible that PRC may look to achieve up to 19% by 2025, this would mean that the PRC would have up to 600 GW of installed renewable capacity by 2025. This would allow the current target of 20% by 2030 to be revised upwards.
See: China could add 48 GW of solar next year
Updated Hydrogen Program Plan published by DOE
USA Department of Energy (DOE) published an updated version of its Hydrogen Program Plan. The origins of hydrogen policy settings in the US can be traced back to the 2002 National Hydrogen Energy Technology Roadmap, which provided "a blueprint for the public and private efforts required to fulfill a long-term national vision for hydrogen energy …".
The updated Plan reflects the focus of DOE on the need for coordinated Research, Development and Demonstration (RD&D) activities to enable the use of H2 across multiple sectors of the US economy to deliver on the stated Vision: " … a prosperous future for the nation, in which clean hydrogen energy technologies are widely affordable, widely available and reliable, and are an integral part of multiple sectors of the economy across the country".
Interestingly, but not surprisingly, the Plan is agnostic as to the colour of H2 but contemplates the production of clean H2 from a diverse hydrogen production technologies, principally the use of steam methane reforming using CCC / CCUS, anerobic digestion to allow reform of anaerobic digester gas, and H2O splitting using a range of technologies, not just electrolysis.
See: The US Department of Energy Hydrogen Program Plan, November 2020
Business Finland publishes National Hydrogen Roadmap for Finland
Business Finland (a public organisation directed by the Finnish Ministry of Employment and Economy) has published a National Hydrogen Roadmap for Finland.
The Roadmap is clear as to history, current uses and future uses:
"Hydrogen has been used as an industrial chemical for more than 100 years. Today … used to manufacture ammonia, and … fertilizers, as well as methanol and hydrogen peroxide, both vital feedstocks for a wide variety of different chemical products … Producing hydrogen via low or totally carbon-free ways, and using this "good" low-carbon hydrogen to replace hydrogen with a larger carbon footprint, we can reduce carbon emissions … ."
H2 is seen as playing a key role in Finland's national goal of carbon neutrality by 2035. The Roadmap does not contain policy settings, rather it is, and each initiative contemplated by it, is intended to provide a "knowledge base for further work" including shaping policy settings for Finland, and "determining the role of hydrogen in the national energy and climate policy".
As with the DOE Hydrogen Program Plan, the Finnish National Hydrogen Roadmap provides a good analysis of the role that H2 can play across sectors, and the scale of the demand side of the prospective market for H2, and in the case of the Roadmap the role that Finish business can play across the H2 value chain.
See: Hydrogen Roadmap for Finland
Roadmaps for on-shore: "Sea Routes and Classification Rules" for floating the off-shore industry
In Europe and in North Asia, and increasingly off the East Coast of the US, the development of off-shore wind capacity is seen as key to the abatement of GHG emissions. Off-shore wind capacity can be fixed or floating. While fixed off-shore capacity has been the prevailing wind technology, floating off-shore wind capacity is being contemplated increasingly. On November 10, 2020 it was announced that vessel classification society DNV GL has released the first integrated set of rules for floating off-shore wind structures. The rules are reported as allowing for classification for many structures, including barges, semi-submersibles, tension leg platforms, and vertical floating columns.
Knut Orbeck-Nilson, CEO of DNV GL – Maritime made the telling observation that: "By bringing many new players into the sector, floating off-shore wind can create a massive space of opportunity for years, vessel operations and off-shore companies. [Realising] this industry will require businesses from many different sectors and new types of standards to enhance cross-sector co-operation."
Alliancing in One Team Operations
The observation of Knut Orbeck-Nilson, CEO of DNV GL reflects what is already happening in South Korea. On November 18, 2020 two of Korea's major corporations, Doosan Heavy Industries and SK Engineering and Construction (SK E&C), announced that they had come together to form a One Team Operation (OTO) cooperation system. Under the OTO arrangement, Doosan Heavy is to take responsibility for the development of off-shore technology and SK E&C will take responsibility for the development of the off-shore wind project, including obtaining approvals and other project development activities. Doosan Heavy has been participating in technology development for a while, including as part of the Korea Institute of Energy Technology. And in September 2020 Doosan Heavy and Hyundai Heavy Industries combined with Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC) to develop the Donghae 1 floating off-shore project.
See: South Koreans form floating wind alliance
Bloom Energy and SK E&C – on a run of success
In Edition 2 of Low Carbon Pulse it was reported that Bloom Energy and SK E&C were to provide fuel cell capacity to the cities of Hwasyng and Paju in Korea. On November 18, 2020 Bloom Energy and SK E&C were announced as having won the tender to supply fuel cell capacity to the Korean Industrial Complex Corporation. While not on the same scale as the Hwasyng and Paju projects, the project is an integrated solution that comprises solar generation capacity and EES in the form of battery storage.
First, 40 by 30, Second 11 by 30, Third, Grid Integrity, and Fourth a Superhighway
Each of the first three Editions of Low Carbon Pulse featured major news about the development of the off-shore wind industry. This Fourth Edition is no different. Scottish Power, National Power and SSE have announced a decision to develop the Eastern Link to carry electrical energy from Peterhead and Torness along the east coast to Selby and Hawthorn Point in the north of England (Superhighway). It is stated that the Superhighway will have 2 GW of capacity, and may be doubled over time.
See: Firms agree Scotland to England renewable energy 'superhighway'
FID close on Dogger Bank C
SSE is reported to be close to a final investment decision to develop the final phase of the 3.6 GW Dogger Bank off-shore wind project (each phase having over 200 wind-turbines): the first two phases, Dogger Bank A and B commenced construction in early 2020. Each of SSE and Equinor holds a 50% interest in the Dogger Bank project. SSE is overseeing the development of the Dogger Bank project to completion. Following completion, Equinor will assume responsibility for the operation. The electrical energy generated will be transmitted using high voltage direct current technology. Once operational the Dogger Bank project will be capable of dispatching sufficient electricity energy for 4.5 million homes in the United Kingdom.
In addition to its interest in the Dogger Bank project, SSE holds a 49% interest in the 1.075 GW Seagreen 1 off-shore wind project, with TOTAL holding a 51% interest, which is expected to achieve completion in 2022/23.
See: SSE plans to triple renewable energy production by 2030 and The biggest job in offshore wind? Equinor hunts chief for $11bn Dogger Bank
A 10 point plan from Number 10 (Green Industrial Revolution)
One of the points in the ten point plan (10 PP) is the 40 by 30 (see Edition 1 of Low Carbon Pulse), and to develop 5 GW of low carbon hydrogen production capacity by 2030. The plan provides funding for use of hydrogen in homes, and for the sale of new petrol and diesel cars to end by 2030 (an acceleration of previous plan to phase out by 2040). In releasing the 10 PP, Prime Minister Johnson said that this was the "beginning of the UK's plans to net zero". In the context of the development of off-shore wind projects, it is important that as well as addressing connection and system integrity and stability electrical energy storage (EES) is part of the development plan.
See: Boris Johnson sets out 10 point plan to get UK back on track for net zero and UK green plan backs nuclear, hydrogen to support 250,000 jobs
Author: Michael Harrison, Partner.
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